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2025 U.S. Consumer Holiday Spending Expected to Top $1 Trillion
With the holiday shopping season just around the corner, estimates suggest that American shoppers could set a record this year — and cross a major milestone.
About the Holiday Spending Forecast for 2025:
This week, the National Retail Federation (NRF) released its annual holiday forecast. In it, they estimate that retail sales between November and December 2025 will total more than $1 trillion for the first time. Specifically, their research suggests a year-over-year spending increase of 3.7% to 4.2%, which would put the total between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion.
The expected increase follows a 4.3% increase observed in 2024, with shopper spending a total of $976.1 billion. Looking further back, NRF data shows that spending five years ago was 24% lower at $764.5 billion, while 2015’s holiday shopping total was 39% lower, totaling $610.9 billion.
To support the upcoming holiday rush, retailers expect to hire hundreds of thousands of seasonal workers. NFT estimates that between 265,000 to 365,000 positions will be opened for the holiday season. While that’s down from the 442,000 seasonal workers that were hired in 2024, NRF Chief Economist and Executive Director of Research Mark Mathews noted that some seasonal hiring may have been moved up into October this year as well.
Elsewhere, a separate NRF survey found that U.S. consumers are expected to spend an average of $890.49 this holiday season. This figure includes gifts, food, decorations, and other items. Notably, this is not a record and instead marks the second-highest entry in the two-decade history of the survey.
What They’re Saying:
Commenting on this year’s forecast, NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said, “American consumers may be cautious in sentiment, yet remain fundamentally strong and continue to drive U.S. economic activity. We remain bullish about the holiday shopping season and expect that consumers will continue to seek savings in nonessential categories to be able to spend on gifts for loved ones.”
Additionally, Mathews noted, “The economy has continued to show surprising resilience in a year marked by trade uncertainty and persistent inflation. As tariffs have induced an uptick in consumer prices, retailers have tried to hold the line on prices given the uncertainty about trade policies.”
My Thoughts:
There’s no doubt that hitting the $1 trillion mark is eye-opening. Yet, while that may seem like good news for retailers, the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and other economic factors is surely making for a more stressful than normal shopping season. Of course, the current government shutdown isn’t helping either. All this is to say that, while estimates suggest we’ll have a record year, it will be interesting to see if that comes to fruition once actual receipts are tallied in January.
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