20% of Americans Believe the Next Recession Has Already Begun
crowd of people walking across a street

20% of Americans Believe the Next Recession Has Already Begun

In the United States, experts use a variety of measurements to assess economic health. These include figures like gross domestic product, the unemployment rate, wage growth, and more. By many of these measures, the U.S. economy is still going strong. Yet, according to a new Bankrate survey, a significant number of Americans not only believe a recession is imminent but some also say its already arrived.

For their survey, Bankrate spoke with both experts and “everyday Americans” to get their thoughts on economic topics. Asked about the overall state of the economy, 99% of experts rated it “excellent” or “good” compared to just 59% of average citizens. Moreover 12% of layman surveyed said the economy was performing poorly. Perhaps not surprisingly given the current occupant of the White House, Republicans were more likely the rate the economy’s status positively, with 77% of right-leaning respondents saying it was good or excellent. Meanwhile Democrats were split as 49% said it was good or excellent and another 49% saying it was poor or “not so good.”

Looking to when the next recession will hit, 55% of experts said it would arrive in one to two years while 44% estimated it would take two years or more. However, although the top response among everyday Americans was “two or more years” with 26%, one in five suggested it had already begun. Additionally 21% said a recession would begin within a year’s time. Once again, political allegiances also played a role in responses as 27% of Democrats said the recession had begun and 35% of Republicans expect its arrival was more than two years out.

Speaking to Yahoo Finance about the survey’s finding, Bankrate’s chief financial analyst Greg McBride said, “If you haven’t had a raise in a few years, if you’re still living paycheck-to-paycheck not making any headway, it’s tough to feel like the economy is doing great. The unemployment [rate] is the lowest in 50 years – doesn’t mean that everybody’s got a job, doesn’t mean that everybody’s doing great.” McBride went on to explain that negative consumer sentiment can actually have an impact on economic growth, noting, “Consumers that feel the economy is weak, they’re going to be more hesitant to spend and that can be a headwind to the economy. Business owners that see the economy as weak – they’re not going to hire people, they’re not going to make capital investments and all of that could add up to a collective headwind to economic growth that’s enough to stall out the expansion.”

It’s hard to say for sure when the U.S.’s long expansion will come to a close. Although the majority of economists and experts continue to suggest a recession is still more than a year away, the pessimism that average Americans hold is concerning and could signal an earlier start. So while social issues may dominate the news cycle and campaign trails now, expect the conversation to shift to the economy as the 2020 election cycle heats up.

Leave a Reply

The "Email" field is empty, you must enter some text to proceed.The text you entered in the "Email" field appears to be invalid, please edit it and try again
Get the Latest News Delivered to Your Inbox
Travelers with two Best Western Credit Cards

Best Western Debuts Two New Rewards Credit Cards

After pausing applications for their previous rewards card, the hotel chain Best Western has unveiled a new pair of rewards credit cards with a new issuer. About the Best Western cards: Best Western is partnering with First Bank & Trust and Mercury Financial to introduce two new co-branded credit cards. First up is the no-annual-fee Best Western Rewards Visa Signature Card. With this card, customers can 4x points on Best...
Marriott Bonvoy card and a woman on vacation

Marriott Bonvoy Bold Card Launches Travel Contest

Chase and Marriott Bonoy have unveiled a special contest while continuing to offer its best-ever welcome bonus. About the welcome bonus and Bold Chat Court Contest: Marriott Bonvoy and Chase have launched a special opportunity called the Bold Chat Court contest. As part of this contest, 10 lucky travelers will be awarded 500,000 Marriott Bonvoy points (for a total of 5 million) as well as $5,000. For this contest, the...
Bilt and All Reward logos

Bilt Adds 2 New Transfer Partners Including First 3:2 Transfer Rate

Bilt is once again expanding its travel transfer rewards program — and is even breaking the mold with one new partner. About the new additions to Bilt: This week, Bilt launched partnerships with two more travel brands: TAP Air Portugal and Accor. As a result, Bilt members will now be able to transfer their points to Miles&Go and ALL Reward, respectively. In total, Bilt now has 18 transfer partners including 13...
Fioney Top 10 Must-Read Personal Finance Articles Septemeber 2024

Top 10 Personal Finance Articles of the Month — September 2024

Welcome to Fioney's look at the top 10 personal finance articles of the month. On the first Friday of each new month, we look back at some of our favorite posts published in the weeks prior and highlight them right here. This includes a mix of sites that have become staples of our lists as well as many first-timers. To start things off this month, we'll look at some articles...

2024 SoFi Checking and Savings Review

Ever since I started taking an interest in the FinTech sector, one company whose name I’ve seen pop up over and over again is SoFi. Lately it seems as though that theme has been sent into overdrive as the company has not only become a household name thanks to its stadium naming rights deal but also because of the company’s continued product expansions. The most interesting development in my mind...